The 90-Day Pricing Diligence Checklist PE Operators Rely On
Emily Ellis · 2024-10-21
Commercial due diligence for a SaaS acquisition is not a checklist. It is a conversation with evidence.
But you need a checklist to make sure you are having the right conversation. This one is organized around pricing because pricing is both the highest-upside value creation lever in most PE-backed (private equity) SaaS portfolios and the most systematically underanalyzed area of CDD.
Work through this in the order it is written. Each stage feeds the next and skipping ahead produces findings that look solid but have no foundation.
The Real Cost
Incomplete commercial diligence on pricing has a specific financial signature. It shows up at year two of the hold as underperformance against net revenue retention (NRR) assumptions, which then triggers a cascade: growth investment is maintained while retention investment is underfunded, the management team is under pressure on both metrics simultaneously, and the exit timeline extends.
The rule of thumb in PE-backed SaaS is that each point of NRR below plan at year two costs approximately 0.15 turns of MOIC at exit, because it compresses both the annual recurring revenue (ARR) base and the exit multiple. A deal that modeled 3.5x MOIC and runs 6 points of NRR below plan for two years is a 2.6x deal before you count any execution problems.
Most of that NRR miss was predictable. Pricing architecture weaknesses that suppress NRR are visible in the pre-close data. They just need to be asked for and interpreted correctly.
The Framework: A Three-Stage Checklist
Stage 1: Data room requests (Start of diligence)
Request the pocket price waterfall: every contract in the last 24 months with list price, negotiated price, any post-signature credits, and the tenure of the account at signing. This document reveals discount norms in a way that aggregate ARR data cannot.
Request the cohort retention table: NRR broken out by acquisition year, plan tier, and segment, for the last 36 months. Ask specifically for the retention data in any cohort that experienced a price change. If the company cannot provide this, flag it immediately. Every SaaS company with adequate billing infrastructure can produce this. Resistance to the request is a finding.
Request the discount exception log: every deal in the last 24 months where discounting exceeded the stated policy ceiling. Who approved it. What the stated reason was. How the account has performed since.
Request the pricing change history: every list price or tier change in the last 36 months, with a description of what changed, when, and for what segment.
Stage 2: Customer interviews (Weeks 2 to 4)
Conduct at least 12 interviews. Include at least three churned customers, three customers in the highest annual contract value (ACV) tier, and three customers in the highest-growth segment.
For every interview, ask three pricing-specific questions: "What did you budget for this product for next year?", "If the price increased 25 percent at renewal, what would trigger a competitive evaluation?", and "What would it cost your organization to replace this product in terms of time, migration cost, and retraining?"
The answers to those three questions define the effective pricing ceiling, the competitive displacement trigger, and the switching cost. Together they tell you how much pricing power exists and where its limits are.
Stage 3: Synthesis and model stress-test (Week 4 to close)
Take the pricing ceiling and switching cost data from your customer interviews and stress-test your financial model's NRR and ACV growth assumptions against three scenarios: best case pricing environment, base case, and a scenario where the first major price increase at renewal triggers 10 percent higher churn than your base model assumes.
If the deal still works in the downside scenario, you have a robust commercial thesis. If it does not, either adjust the entry valuation or require a pre-close pricing governance audit as a condition of signing.
The Failure Case
A PE team completed CDD on a workflow automation SaaS company in 28 days. The process confirmed strong market position, a product roadmap aligned to ideal customer profile (ICP) needs, and pricing below the market benchmark by 20 percent. The team flagged "pricing upside" in the IC memo and proceeded to close at 9x ARR.
The data room had not included a pricing change history. No one had asked. Management volunteered that they had made one pricing change 18 months earlier: a 15 percent base price increase on new business. CDD did not follow up on what had happened to NRR in that cohort.
Eighteen months into the hold, the operating partner reviewed cohort data and found that the cohort acquired after the 15 percent price increase had NRR of 94 percent, compared to 106 percent for the preceding cohort. The product had been commoditizing in the lower end of the market without the management team recognizing it.
The planned price increase in year two of the hold was pulled. The value creation plan was restructured around a move upmarket. The hold period extended by 18 months. The MOIC came in at 2.2x on a deal that had been underwritten to 3.0x.
The pricing change history was a single spreadsheet that would have taken management 30 minutes to pull. No one asked for it.
What to Do This Week
Add one item to your current data room request list: the retention data for every cohort that has experienced a price change in the last 36 months.
If you are not in a current deal, add this request to your standard CDD data room template now. It will not slow down any deal. Management teams with healthy commercial models can produce this in 48 hours. The ones that cannot produce it, or resist producing it, are telling you something valuable about the commercial operating rigor of the business you are considering buying.
For a complete CDD scoring framework that includes pricing architecture alongside the standard commercial dimensions, use the FintastIQ Pricing Diagnostic as a pre-close supplement to your standard CDD process.
To connect this checklist to your post-close value creation plan, see our post on the 90-day pricing diagnostic for PE portcos.
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